ON THE USE OF DISPERSION MEASURES FROM NAPM SURVEYS IN BUSINESS-CYCLE FORECASTING

被引：23

作者：

DASGUPTA, S

LAHIRI, K

机构：

[1] Department of Economics, State University of New York, Albany, New York

来源：

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1993年 / 12卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

PURCHASING MANAGERS SURVEY; QUALITATIVE RESPONSE; SECTORAL VARIABILITY; INVENTORY DISPERSION; CYCLICAL TURNING POINT;

D O I：

10.1002/for.3980120306

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Qualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order, and employment collected every month by the National Association of Purchasing Managers are analysed over 1948-90. The Probability method we use generates time-series estimates of cross-section variabilities across firms. It is shown that these diffusion measures have additional explanatory power in the prediction of business cycle turning points.

引用

页码：239 / 253

页数：15

共 37 条

[1]

Anderson O., 1952, REV I INT STAT, V20, P1, DOI [10.2307/1401826, DOI 10.2307/1401826]

[2] INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS REVISITED [J].