DISTRIBUTION OF CRIMINAL OFFENSES IN AN URBAN-ENVIRONMENT - SPATIAL-ANALYSIS OF CRIMINAL SPILLOVERS AND OF JUVENILE OFFENDERS

Abstract. In order to derive a basis for an optimal allocation of police manpower among contiguous communities criminal spillovers among these communities must be explicitly taken into account. Under the assumptions established in the economic theory of choice a criminal spillovers model is derived. The hypothesized variables within this model which serve as motivating factors for criminal spillovers are economic gain and competitive criminal pressures. Those factors which deter criminal spillovers are costs of committing offenses and the relative risks in committing crimes in distant communities. The model is then tested using data on juvenile offenders supplied by the City of Los Angeles, for the crimes of robbery, burglary and larceny. The results suggest that on an aggregate basis juvenile criminal behavior is not purely opportunistic and that certain control and motivating factors are significant in the juvenile's judgments for the spatial selection of offense targets. Copyright © 1979, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved