A CHAIN MODEL FOR DIOXINS - FROM EMISSION TO COWS MILK

This paper discusses a mathematical chain model for dioxins that relates dioxin levels in cow's milk to emissions. The model consists of an atmospheric model, a pasture model and a toxicokinetic cow model. The complete chain model contains three uncertain parameters: two parameters related to the wash-off of dry and wet deposition by rain, and one denoting the bioavailability of dioxins in the cow. These three parameters were estimated by calibrating the model to a set of 70 analysed milk samples originating froin several regions in the Netherlands located near MSW incinerators. The calibrated model predicted an independent set of 53 measurements of milk with an average prediction error of 26%.