PREDICTIVE FACTORS OF EARLY POSTOPERATIVE GRAFT FUNCTION IN HUMAN LIVER-TRANSPLANTATION

To identify factors predictive of early postoperative graft function, we analyzed 54 variables-including easily available clinical and laboratory data prospectively obtained from organ donors, transplant recipients and surgical procedures in 168 consecutive liver transplantations. Early postoperative graft function was classified into three groups according to a scoring system ranging from 3 to 9 based on peak serum ALT values, mean bile output and lowest prothrombin activity measured during the 72 hr after transplant: group 1 (score 3 to 4, good graft function; n = 73), group 2 (score 5 to 6, moderate dysfunction; n = 50) and group 3 (score, 7 to 9, severe dysfunction; n = 45). In univariate analyses, 8 of the 54 variables analyzed were statistically significant (p < 0.05) predictors of severe graft dysfunction: high serum sodium concentration and brain death caused by cranial trauma in organ donors, advanced age and low prothrombin activity in transplant recipients, prolonged total ischemia time and large transfusions of red blood cells, fresh; frozen plasma and platelets during surgery. After introduction of these eight variables in a multivariate analysis, only four were found to independently predict early postoperative graft function: donor serum sodium concentration, total ischemia time, platelet transfusion during surgery and recipient prothrombin activity. In 52 liver transplantations, in which the predictive value of liver tissue adenine nucleotide concentration and several biochemical sensitive markers of donor nutritional status was also analyzed, only the ATP level in liver tissue obtained at the time of organ reperfusion was identified as an independent predictor of initial graft function. We conclude that the degree of early postoperative graft dysfunction in liver transplantation can be predicted on the basis of data from organ donors, transplant recipients and surgical events.