DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR ROBUST ENERGY-SYSTEMS .1. METHODOLOGY

被引：12

作者：

LARSSON, T

WENE, CO

机构：

[1] Division of Energy Systems Technology, Department of Energy Conversion, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH | 1993年 / 17卷 / 06期

关键词：

ENERGY PLANNING; STRATEGIC PLANNING; DECISION ANALYSIS; ROBUSTNESS; MARKAL;

D O I：

10.1002/er.4440170606

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Strategic energy planning is concerned with investments in energy technologies with long lead times and long life times. Of special interest are uncertainties about future developments that could lead to a major reappraisal of the cost-efficiency of different energy technologies. Decision making in this context is concerned, therefore, with finding a solution to the decision problem which is both low-cost and robust. Here, a method is described for using hedging to improve the robustness of the energy system. The method is applied using a standard energy systems model, MARKAL. It is shown how the model results can be used for a quantitative analysis of the robustness of the energy system. A study of the Swedish energy system is used as an example, where the uncertain factor is whether or not future restrictions on CO2 emissions will be imposed.

引用

页码：503 / 513

页数：11

共 45 条

[1]

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