SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY OF DIAGNOSTIC-TESTS IN ACUTE MAXILLARY SINUSITIS DETERMINED BY MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD IN THE ABSENCE OF AN EXTERNAL STANDARD

This study shows how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of test sensitivities and specificities in case of lack of an external standard, using the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm. This method is used to compare four diagnostic tests in patients suspected of acute maxillary sinusitis. Data were analyzed from published studies. Antral aspiration is the test with the highest diagnostic value. The diagnostic value of a positive clinical examination (according to explicit criteria) and of a positive radiograph or ultrasound are comparable. A negative radiograph is of more diagnostic value than a negative clinical examination or ultrasound. The width of the confidence intervals may be too small, due to model deviations which may give incorrect standard errors. However, the estimated likelihood ratios adequately reflect the relative value of the diagnostic tests considered, even when the assumption of independence is dropped.