TOWARD IMPACT FUNCTIONS FOR STOCHASTIC CLIMATE CHANGE

被引：6

作者：

Estrada, Francisco ^{[1
,2
]}

Tol, Richard S. J. ^{[1
,2
,3
,4
,5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[2] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico

[3] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Falmer, England

[4] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[5] Tinbergen Inst, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[6] CESifo, Munich, Germany

来源：

CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS | 2015年 / 6卷 / 04期

关键词：

Economic impact of climate change; stochasticity; risk premium;

D O I：

10.1142/S2010007815500153

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Most functions of economic impact assume that climate change is smooth. We here propose impact functions that have stochastic climate change as an input. These functions are identical in shape and have similar parameters as do deterministic impact functions. The mean stochastic impacts are thus similar to deterministic impacts. Welfare effects are larger, and the stochasticity premium is larger than the risk premium. Results suggest that stochasticity is more important for past impacts than for future impacts. This outcome is partly caused by an underestimation of natural variability in the 21st century climate projections.

引用

页数：13

共 27 条

[1] Possible or probable? [J].