DYNAMIC-MODELS OF COMMUTER BEHAVIOR - EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION AND APPLICATION TO THE ANALYSIS OF PLANNED TRAFFIC DISRUPTIONS

This paper reviews the results of a series of experiments aimed at investigating the day-to-day dynamics of commuter behavior in congested traffic systems. The interactive experiments involve actual work commuters in a simulated traffic system, whereby commuters noncooperatively supply their decisions to a traffic simulation model that determines the resulting arrival times and associated trip times; these in turn form the basis of the commuters' decisions on the next day. Models are developed to predict the daily switching of departure time and/or route by individual commuters in response to experienced congestion in the system or to exogenously supplied information. These models are incorporated in a dynamic modelling framework for the analysis of the impacts of planned traffic disruptions, such as those associated with major highway repair and reconstruction activities. © 1990.