CRIMINAL CAREERS IN THE SHORT-TERM - INTRAINDIVIDUAL VARIABILITY IN CRIME AND ITS RELATION TO LOCAL LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES

We analyze month-to-month variations in offending and life circumstances of convicted felons to understand change in criminal behavior. We extend previous applications of social control theory by considering whether local life circumstances that strengthen or weaken social bonds influence offending over relatively short periods of time. We seek to determine whether formal and informal mechanisms of social control affect the likelihood of committing nine major felonies. We employ a hierarchical linear model that provides a within-individual analysis as we explore factors that determine the pattern of offending. The results suggest that meaningful short-term change in involvement in crime is strongly related to variation in local life circumstances.