A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR NATIONAL ENERGY-POLICY PLANNING

FOSSIL2, the system dynamics model of U.S. energy supply and demand developed by Roger Naill and associates, has reached higher levels of United States government policy influence than perhaps any other system dynamics work. Stemming from work initiated twenty years ago, the model continues to be refined and used for government energy planning and policy analysis. This article, describing the history and structure of FOSSIL2, is the first in a series of two articles about the model to be published in the System Dynamics Review. The second article, to appear in issue 8:2, employs FOSSIL2 to analyze a particularly sensitive policy area, the cost-effectiveness of United States energy policies to mitigate global warming.