CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS FOR SOUTH-AMERICA

Some of the characteristics of predicted climate changes for South America are analysed for the years 2010 and 2050. These predictions are based on the results of three-dimensional Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The results differ between models (GISS, NCAR-CCMs and GFDL), particularly when applied to regional and sub-regional scales and to time scales of less than one-year intervals. It is concluded that these differences are due to the particular structure of each model as well as to the lack of sufficient basic data from the South American sub-continent. The dynamics of vegetation cover play an important role in future water balance changes. The changes in surface temperatures predicted by the GISS model are discussed in relation to changes in the climatic-dynamic base stemming from anthropogenic changes in the vegetation cover.