HISTORY AND DEMOCRACY REVISITED

Robert Dahl has argued that democracy is more likely to endure in countries where political competition precedes the expansion of political participation and where democracy is inaugurated by evolutionary rather than disruptive means. I test these propositions against the experience of seventy-one democratic regimes between 1848 and 1991. The correlations largely confirm Dahl's propositions. However, they prove to be almost entirely a product of the ''first wave'' of democracy from 1848 to 1931. The evidence shows not only numerous exceptions, but also a pronounced decrease over time in the association of the proposed more favorable evolutionary routes to democracy with long-term democratic success.