Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for rock sites in the cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah, United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is undergoing very rapid development with one of the highest construction rates in the world. A number of studies of the seismic hazard in the UAE have been published in recent years, presenting diverse interpretations of the earthquake threat in this country of relatively low local seismicity, creating confusion regarding appropriate seismic design levels. Although there is inevitably considerable uncertainty associated with the assessment of seismic hazard in such a region, those studies indicating rather high levels of ground motion associated with a 475-year return period are found to be the result of inappropriate seismic source zonations that spread seismicity from the Zagros region of Iran into the Arabian Peninsula. A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed within a logic-tree framework, and the results displayed as uniform hazard spectra for rock sites in the cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah in the UAE. The results support the UBC 1997 classification of the two former cities in Zone 0 (no seismic design required) whereas in Ra's Al Khaymah Zone 1 would be appropriate.