WISH AND REALITY IN VOTERS PREDICTIONS OF ELECTION OUTCOMES

This study investigated wishful thinking (WT) among Israeli voters in the 1988 election. The WT hypothesis predicts that preference will influence expectations of election outcomes. Two independent samples were investigated, nine weeks and two weeks prior to the election. Preferences were measured through voting intention and intensity of support for Labor or Likud block. Expectations were measured through predictions of who would form the next government and the numbers of seats projected to be won by each party. Additional variables included ''pure fantasy'' wish, interpretations of current political events, and long-range (10-year) economic and political predictions. The results showed substantial WT effects-predictions of election outcomes and interpretations of current events varied as a function of preferences. Labor voters showed less WT than Likud and right-wing supporters, and extreme left-wing supporters showed a reversed pattern, their expectations running contrary to preference. The overall electoral picture emerging from the respondents' predictions differed from public opinion polls published at the same time in the Israeli printed media. The discussion focused on the interplay between wish and reality, ''burnt fingers'' of Labor voters, and false uniqueness and dissonance reduction phenomena in the predictions of extreme left-wing supporters.