POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUD PROCESSED AIR AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY IN THE NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE LOWER STRATOSPHERE AT MIDLATITUDES DURING WINTER

Small-scale (<1000 km) features in ER-2 measurements of ClO, O3, H2O, N2O, and NOy outside the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex of 1988-1989 are compared with features on potential vorticity maps from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The potential vorticity maps are obtained from T106 analyses and forecasts. Some of the plots have been truncated to lower resolution (T63 or T42) which smooths out the finer-scale structure. Comparison of these lower resolution plots shows how much detail is lost by excessive smoothing. It is also evident that the forecast plots lose fine-scale structure due to dissipation in the model resulting mainly from horizontal diffusion. We conclude that blobs of air on the maps at latitudes between the vortex edge and 25-degrees-N having potential vorticities characteristic of the vortex, did indeed originate from the vortex, but that the real atmosphere is more sharply differentiated (inhomogeneous) than the meteorological analyses, implying that the potential vorticity maps underestimate the amount of peeled-off material. Areal budgets of thc ex-vortex air are considered for ER-2 flight days, and are performed for 24-hour forecasts at T63, and analyses at T42, T63, and T106 resolution at theta = 475 K. Finally, it is concluded that the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex of 1988-1989 spread considerable amounts of air to mid-latitudes which had been processed by polar stratospheric clouds, and that this mechanism is a realistic explanation for the wintertime loss of ozone observed over northern mid-latitudes during the last decade.