EFFECT OF INTRAPLANT INSECT MOVEMENT ON ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS

A simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of intraplant spatial dynamics of the lepidopteran pest complex of cabbage on direct damage to the marketable parts of the plant. Diurnal fluctuations in microclimate for different parts of the crop canopy were simulated with sine functions. Larval development rates for each species were simulated with logistic functions of temperature, the development process with time-varying distributed delays, and feeding rates with exponential functions of temperature and larval age. Larval transition probabilities within the crop canopy were modeled with either constants or definite integrals of the Beta probability density function, the shape parameters of which were modeled as functions of temperature. The model provided a good fit to data on changes in intraplant distribution of these larvae and intraplant distribution of feeding damage. Evaluation of model predictions suggests that a threshold population density used for management decisions should not be static, but should be a complex function of species, larval age distribution, and forecast temperatures. A model like the one presented here could serve as that complex function. © 1990 Entomological Society of America.