IMPROVING JUDGMENTAL TIME-SERIES FORECASTING - A REVIEW OF THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY RESEARCH

被引：80

作者：

GOODWIN, P ^{[1
]}

WRIGHT, G ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] STRATHCLYDE GRAD BUSINESS SCH,GLASGOW G4 0GE,SCOTLAND

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1993年 / 9卷 / 02期

关键词：

JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING; TIME SERIES; DECOMPOSITION; QUALITY OF JUDGMENT;

D O I：

10.1016/0169-2070(93)90001-4

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This study reviews the research literature on judgmental time series forecasting in order to assess: (i) the quality of inferences about judgmental forecasting in practice which can be drawn from this research; (ii) what is currently known about the processes employed by people when producing judgmental forecasts; (iii) the current evidence that certain strategies can lead to more accurate judgmental forecasts. A key focus of the paper is the identification of areas where further research is needed.

引用

页码：147 / 161

页数：15

共 82 条

[1] USING BELIEF NETWORKS TO FORECAST OIL PRICES [J].