A MULTIATTRIBUTE PREFERENCE MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE REFORESTATION CHAIN ALTERNATIVES OF A FOREST STAND

This paper presents a method, based on multi-attribute utility theory, for choosing the reforestation chain in a forest stand. The method is developed mainly for analysing and supporting the decision-making of non-industrial forest landowners. By using the decision analysis model, all kinds of objectives, qualitative as well as quantitative, can be analytically dealt with, and alternative reforestation chains can be evaluated with regard both to overall utility and to each specific objective. The decision alternative which maximises overall utility is recommended as most suitable. Values of reforestation chain alternatives with regard to an objective which cannot be measured reliably enough using quantitative production functions are determined via preference functions describing the importance of making sub-choices of chains and the desirabilities of sub-choice alternatives, with regard to the objective in question. Parameters of preference functions are estimated on the grounds of pairwise comparisons between decision elements, using the eigenvalue method as presented by T.L. Saaty. Timber production values are estimated on the basis of the discounted value of net revenues. Based on the interpretation of the parameters of the preference model as marginal rates of substitution, wide-ranging sensitivity analyses can be carried out, e.g. on the effects of changing the weighting of objectives on the ranking of decision alternatives.