A SIMULATION-MODEL FOR SEPTORIA-NODORUM IN WINTER-WHEAT

A disease model that simulates a Septoria nodorum epidemic was coupled to a wheat growth model. The structure of the composite model includes delays for latency and infectious periods and procedures for simulation of lesion growth and vertical spore distribution. Standard weather data were used to drive the model. Results from a sensitivity analysis showed the weather conditions to be the most important factors in the development of an epidemic in a particular year. Spore dispersal parameters and threshold criteria for dispersal and infection were also important. The amount of initial inoculum was less important.