SAFETY ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS USING FUZZY-SETS AND EVIDENTIAL REASONING

This paper presents a new methodology for safety analysis and synthesis of a complex engineering system with a structure that is capable of being decomposed into a hierarchy of levels. In this methodology, fuzzy set theory is used to describe each failure event and an evidential reasoning approach is then employed to synthesise the information thus produced to assess the safety of the whole system. Three basic parameters-failure likelihood, consequence severity and failure consequence probability, are used to analyse a failure event. These three parameters are described by linguistic variables which are characterised by a membership function to the defined categories. As safety can also be clearly described by linguistic variables referred to as the safety expressions, the obtained fuzzy safety score can be mapped back to the safety expressions which are characterised by membership functions over the same categories. This mapping results in the identification of the safety of each failure event in terms of the degree to which the fuzzy safety score belongs to each of the safety expressions. Such degrees represent the uncertainty in safety evaluations and can be synthesised using an evidential reasoning approach so that the safety of the whole system can be evaluated in terms of these safety expressions. Finally, a practical engineering example is presented to demonstrate the proposed safety analysis and synthesis methodology.