IMPLEMENTATION OF HYBRID SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING SYSTEM USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND FUZZY EXPERT-SYSTEMS

被引:136
作者
KIM, KH
PARK, JK
HWANG, KJ
KIM, SH
机构
[1] SEOUL NATL UNIV,DEPT ELECT ENGN,SEOUL 151742,SOUTH KOREA
[2] UNIV ULSAN,DEPT ELECT ENGN,ULSAN 680749,SOUTH KOREA
[3] KOREA ELECT POWER CO,DEPT POWER SYST CONTROL,SEOUL 135791,SOUTH KOREA
关键词
D O I
10.1109/59.466492
中图分类号
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要
In this paper, a hybrid model for short-term load forecast that integrates artificial neural networks and fuzzy expert systems is presented. The forecasted load is obtained by passing through two steps. In the first procedure, the artificial neural networks are trained with the load patterns corresponding to the forecasting hour, and the provisional forecasted load is obtained by the trained artificial neural networks. In the second procedure, the fuzzy expert systems modify the provisional forecasted load considering the possibility of load variation due to changes in temperature and the load behavior of holiday. In the test case of 1994 for implementation in short term load forecasting expert system of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), the proposed hybrid model provided good forecasting accuracy of the mean absolute percentage errors below 1.3%. The comparison results with exponential smoothing method showed the efficiency and accuracy of the hybrid model.
引用
收藏
页码:1534 / 1539
页数:6
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