AN EMPIRICAL-STUDY OF THE ECONOMIC-EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WORLD AGRICULTURE

The economic effects of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on world agriculture under two alternative crop response scenarios are empirically estimated. These effects include both changes in the prices of agricultural commodities as a result of changes in domestic agricultural yields, and changes in economic welfare following altered world patterns of consumption and production of agricultural commodities. Under both scenarios, with a few exceptions, the effects on national economic welfare are found to be quite modest. However, prices of agricultural commodities are estimated to rise considerably under the more pessimistic scenario. Increased agricultural prices reduce consumer surplus and diminish the benefits from climate change that some countries with predicted positive yield effects would otherwise receive.