JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENT OF EARNINGS FORECASTS

被引：41

作者：

WOLFE, C ^{[1
]}

FLORES, B ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] TEXAS A&M UNIV SYST,COLL BUSINESS ADM,DEPT BUSINESS ANAL,COLLEGE STN,TX 77843

来源：

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1990年 / 9卷 / 04期

关键词：

Analytic hierarchy process; Earnings forecasts; Judgmental adjustment;

D O I：

10.1002/for.3980090407

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Earnings forecasts have received a great deal of attention, much of which has centered on the comparative accuracy of judgmental and objective forecasting methods. Recently, studies have focused on the use of combinations of subjective and objective forecasts to improve forecast accuracy. This research offers an extension on this theme by subjectively modifying an objective forecast. Specifically, ARIMA forecasts are judgmentally adjusted by analysts using a structured approach based on Saaty's (1980) analytic hierarchy process. The results show that the accuracy of the unadjusted objective forecasts can be improved when judgmentally adjusted. Copyright © 1990 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：389 / 405

页数：17