COMPARISON OF 2 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS

A demonstration of two methods of uncertainty analysis was carried out to assess their utility for future use in treating computer models of nuclear power systems. The two methods of uncertainty analysis, called the response surface method and the crude Monte Carlo method, produced comparable results for the probability density function of the peak cladding temperature as computed by a simplified nuclear code that was subjected to seven uncertainty parameters. From these density functions, the upper cumulative tail probabilities are obtained and are shown to be measures of parameter margin.