INTERACTION OF JUDGMENTAL AND STATISTICAL FORECASTING METHODS - ISSUES AND ANALYSIS

被引:118
作者
BUNN, D [1 ]
WRIGHT, G [1 ]
机构
[1] STRATHCLYDE BUSINESS SCH,GLASGOW G4 0GE,SCOTLAND
关键词
JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING; QUALITY OF JUDGMENT; COMBINATION OF FORECASTS; BOOTSTRAPPING; CALIBRATION;
D O I
10.1287/mnsc.37.5.501
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have previously asserted, and circumstances favourable to this are identified. The issue of the interaction of judgemental and statistical method is, however, identified as a more worthwhile line of inquiry, and research in this area is reviewed, differentiating approaches aimed at synthesising both of these inputs.
引用
收藏
页码:501 / 518
页数:18
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