A FRAMEWORK TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SOIL AND MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS IN CROP YIELD SIMULATION - A CASE-STUDY FOR RICE

被引:20
作者
BOUMAN, BAM
机构
[1] DLO Research Institute for Agrobiology and Soil Fertility (AB-DLO), 6700 AA Wageningen
关键词
D O I
10.1016/0308-521X(94)90166-D
中图分类号
S [农业科学];
学科分类号
09 ;
摘要
A framework is developed for crop yield simulation that accounts for uncertainty in soil and management input parameters. The framework consists of three steps: (1) the calculation of 'standard yield' using estimated soil and management parameters that are supposed to be representative for the land unit under consideration; (2) sensitivity analysis on the soil and management parameters; and (3) the calculation of yield probability from probability distributions for the soil and management parameters through Monte Carlo simulation. The results of sensitivity analysis are useful in setting up cost- and time-efficient measurement strategies. When a large number of actual soil and management measurements have been made, Monte Carlo simulation results in actual yield variability in the land unit. The developed framework is illustrated for rainfed upland rice on a loamy soil in The Philippines, using the MACROS crop growth model. The uncertainty in the simulated yield was large. there was 90% probability that simulated yield was between O.6 and 1.65 times the simulated standard yield in average years. In general, accurate yield prediction will be conditional on the availability of accurate soil and management parameters.
引用
收藏
页码:1 / 17
页数:17
相关论文
共 19 条
[11]  
Penning de Vries F.W.T., 1989, INT RICE RES I, V29
[12]  
REINDS GJ, 1991, CROP PRODUCTION POTE, V5
[13]  
RITCHIE JT, 1989, LAND QUALITIES IN SPACE AND TIME, P155
[14]  
STEIN A, 1991, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN
[15]  
VANGENUCHTEN MT, 1989, LAND QUALITIES IN SPACE AND TIME, P61
[16]  
VANLANEN HA, 1991, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN
[17]   SAMPLING STRATEGIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF SOIL HYDRAULIC-PROPERTIES TO PREDICT RICE YIELD USING SIMULATION-MODELS [J].
WOPEREIS, MCS ;
KROPFF, MJ ;
WOSTEN, JHM ;
BOUMA, J .
GEODERMA, 1993, 59 (1-4) :1-20
[18]  
WOSTEN JHM, 1987, ICW18 REP
[19]  
1992, GROUND CHOICES 4 PER