SLIP PARTITIONING OF THE CALAVERAS FAULT, CALIFORNIA, AND PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

Examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the Calaveras Fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8-9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes. Microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones. Estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic. We propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes. From the pattern of microearthquake locations we recognize six aseismic zones where we expect future main shocks will rupture the Calaveras Fault. -from Authors