A PROBABILISTIC METHOD FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE AND THE RELIABILITY OF WIND-DIESEL ENERGY-SYSTEMS

This paper describes a probabilistic method for predicting the performance and the reliability of autonomous wind-diesel energy systems based on statistical data of the system load and the wind speed. Expected annual wind and diesel energy production as well as fuel consumption and cost are calculated. The system loss of toad probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy (EUE) are also computed. In order to retain acceptable service reliability, the operation of the wind-diesel system is constrained by the requirement that the wind generation must not exceed a certain percentage of the system Load. This requirement introduces interdependence between the wind generation and the system Load which is taken into account in the statistical computations. The performance of the developed method is demonstrated with computational results.