地方债务融资对政府投资有效性的影响研究

被引：40

作者：

毛锐

刘楠楠

刘蓉

机构：

[1] 西南财经大学财政税务学院

来源：

世界经济 | 2018年 / 41卷 / 10期

基金：

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助;

关键词：

政府投资有效性; 地方债务融资; 税收融资;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

F812.5 [国家公债、债券、外债];

学科分类号：

摘要：

在经济"新常态"背景下,中国政府投资支出对经济增长的拉动作用逐渐减弱,从而出现基建投资、M2大幅增加但经济增长放缓的现象。本文通过构建包含金融摩擦、预算软约束、政府投资等要素的DSGE模型,试图从地方债务和税收两种融资方式差异的角度解释这一现象。结果显示:在存在金融摩擦的条件下,地方债务融资支出相较于税收会紧缩金融信贷,挤出私人投资,导致投资效力减弱,并引致金融风险;预算软约束会降低政府瞬时和累积支出乘数,乘数效应的变化幅度与金融摩擦程度正相关;经济下行期间,税收融资支出对经济的提振作用明显,但地方债务融资支出提振经济仅具有短期效应,长期则会加速经济下行。

引用

页码：51 / 74

页数：24

共 27 条

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