1961-2010年三江源地区气温变化与突变分析(英文)

In this study, a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region of Qinghai Province (THRHR) was used to analyze the climate change. The temperature variation and abrupt change analysis were examined by using moving average, linear regression, Spline interpo-lation, Mann-Kendall test and so on. Some important conclusions were obtained from this research, which mainly contained four aspects as follows. (1) There were several cold and warm fluctuations for the annual and seasonal average temperature in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions, but the temperature in these regions all had an obviously rising trend at the statistical significance level, especially after 2001. The spring, summer, autumn and annual average temperature increased evidently after the 1990s, and the winter average temperature exhibited an obvious upward trend after entering the 21st century. Except the standard value of spring temperature, the annual and seasonal temperature standard value in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions increased gradually, and the upward trend for the standard value of winter average temperature indicated significantly. (2) The tendency rate of annual average temperature in the THRHR was 0.36℃10a?1, while the tendency rates in the Yellow River Headwater Region (YERHR), Lancangjiang River Headwater Region (LARHR) and Yangtze River Headwater Region (YARHR) were 0.37℃10a?1, 0.37℃10a?1 and 0.34℃10a?1 respectively. The temperature increased significantly in the south of Yushu County and the north of Nangqian County. The rising trends of temperature in winter and autumn were higher than the upward trends in spring and summer. (3) The abrupt changes of annual, summer, autumn and winter average temperature were found in the THRHR, LARHR and YARHR, and were detected for the summer and autumn average temperature in the YERHR. The abrupt changes of annual and summer average temperatures were mainly in the late 1990s, while the abrupt changes of autumn and winter average temperatures ap-peared primarily in the early 1990s and the early 21st century respectively. (4) With the global warming, the diversities of altitude and underlying surface in different parts of the Tibetan Plateau were possibly the main reasons for the high increasing rate of temperature in the THRHR.