基于DEA的中国农业旱灾脆弱性评价及时空演变分析

被引：24

作者：

裴欢 ^{[1
]}

王晓妍 ^{[1
]}

房世峰 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 燕山大学信息科学与工程学院

[2] 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

来源：

灾害学 | 2015年 / 30卷 / 02期

关键词：

农业; 旱灾脆弱性; DEA; 空间分布; 变化趋势;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

S423 [旱灾];

学科分类号：

摘要：

旱灾脆弱性是形成旱灾的基础,开展脆弱性评价对旱灾形成机理及其防治具有重要意义。运用数据包络分析方法,构建旱灾脆弱性评价模型,对我国近40年农业旱灾脆弱性时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,上海、江苏和福建三省的旱灾脆弱性最低,脆弱度均值低于0.2;而山东、陕西、内蒙古、山西四省的旱灾脆弱性最高,脆弱性均值高于0.5,从南到北旱灾脆弱性逐渐增大,且具有空间正相关特征;旱灾脆弱性程度总体呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-0.02/10a(P<0.05),但广西、青海、内蒙等9省旱灾脆弱性呈上升趋势;脆弱性的空间差异变小,脆弱性变异系数呈下降趋势。DEA方法运用于脆弱性评价具有较高可信度,可解决旱灾脆弱性评价指标体系复杂、权重确定较主观的问题,对把握区域旱灾脆弱性空间分异特点及时间变化趋势具有较强优势。

引用

页码：64 / 69

页数：6

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