贸易开放如何影响PM2.5——基于淮河两岸供暖政策差异的因果效应研究

被引：9

作者：

代丽华

机构：

[1] 山东师范大学经济学院

来源：

管理评论 | 2017年 / 29卷 / 05期

关键词：

贸易开放; PM2.5; 工具变量; 淮河分界线;

D O I：

10.14120/j.cnki.cn11-5057/f.2017.05.022

中图分类号：

F299.24 [基础设施与公用事业]; X51 [大气污染及其防治];

学科分类号：

083305 ; 0706 ; 070602 ;

摘要：

本文以中国2013年实施新空气质量标准的74个城市横截面数据为样本,研究贸易开放对PM2.5排放的因果影响程度。为了解决由于污染排放对贸易开放的反向因果偏误,本文使用了Blanchard和Perotti提出的两阶段工具变量方法解决内生性。在第一阶段PM2.5的工具变量选择上,考虑到中国以淮河为界对两岸城市实施不同的集中供暖政策,而集中供暖采用的煤炭燃烧是导致PM2.5排放的主要原因之一,因此选择了各城市距离淮河一线的纬度差作为PM2.5排放的代理变量。实证结果表明PM2.5排放增加会导致外贸依存度显著降低。运用第一阶段回归的残差,作为第二阶段中贸易开放的工具变量来解决反向因果效应,结果显示贸易开放会造成环境质量的恶化。机制分析表明,贸易开放之所以导致环境恶化主要是污染行业的出口造成的。

引用

页码：237 / 245

页数：9

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