基于前景理论的群体灰靶决策方法

被引：21

作者：

闫书丽 ^{[1
,2
]}

刘思峰 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 不详

[2] 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院

[3] 不详

[4] 河南科技大学数学与统计学院

[5] 不详

来源：

控制与决策 | 2014年 / 04期

关键词：

群体决策; 灰靶; 前景理论; 权重; 突发事件;

D O I：

10.13195/j.kzyjc.2012.1901

中图分类号：

O225 [对策论（博弈论）];

学科分类号：

摘要：

考虑决策者关于各指标均有期望灰靶对群体决策的影响,提出一种基于前景理论的群体灰靶决策方法.该方法以期望灰靶为参考点来定义前景价值函数,利用奖优罚劣的线性变换算子对前景价值进行规范化处理,能够充分反映评价值是否中靶.根据群体意见一致性以及最高和最低评价对决策结果偏差的影响,构建决策者权重确定模型,并根据综合前景值的正负判断方案是否中靶.最后通过突发事件应急预案选择问题说明了该模型的可行性和有效性.

引用

页码：673 / 678

页数：6

共 22 条

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