区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析——以阿克苏河流域为例

被引：10

作者：

张玉虎 ^{[1
]}

刘凯利 ^{[2
]}

陈秋华 ^{[2
]}

胡欣欣 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院

[2] 首都师范大学数学科学学院

来源：

地理科学 | 2014年 / 34卷 / 12期

关键词：

干旱; Copula; 重现期; 干旱风险; 阿克苏河流域;

D O I：

10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.12.009

中图分类号：

P426.616 [降水引起的灾害];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

根据阿克苏河流域及其周边区域9个站点19602010年日降水资料,以降水距平百分率(Pa)指数表征气象干旱状况,构建了3种Archimedean Copula函数,通过4种方法(RMSE、AIC、BIC、Bayes)的检验,选出GH Copula作为最合适多变量干旱特征联合分布函数,并开展了研究区干旱特征两变量联合分布及重现期研究。结果表明:1 3种Archimedean Copula函数中GH Copula函数对研究区域干旱联合重现期分布的拟合效果最优;2研究区整体上干旱风险较大,东部比西部干旱风险高,南部高于北部;3发生中等干旱和严重干旱时,阿拉尔和柯坪干旱风险增大,整体上"且"与"或"联合重现期的分布大体一致,发生长历时干旱时,干旱的严重程度也大,说明此区域的干旱特征对开展风险管理及应对很不利。

引用

页码：1480 / 1487

页数：8

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