主成分和回归分析方法在大气臭氧预报的应用——以北京夏季为例

被引:32
作者
安俊琳 [1 ,2 ]
王跃思 [2 ]
朱彬 [1 ]
机构
[1] 南京信息工程大学大气物理与大气环境重点开放实验室
[2] 中国科学院大气物理研究所,LAPC
基金
中国博士后科学基金;
关键词
臭氧; 主成分分析; 回归分析; 前体物;
D O I
10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2010.06.014
中图分类号
X831 [大气监测];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070602 ;
摘要
利用北京市区两个典型观测站的大气臭氧(O3)及前体物浓度观测资料和气象要素观测数据,分析了影响大气O3浓度各要素的相关性,并采用主成分分析和逐步回归方法构造大气O3浓度统计预报方程.结果表明,大气O3与前体物一氧化氮(NO)、二氧化氮(NO2)和气象要素呈现较好相关性;发现由于变量间共线性问题,逐步回归方法不能给出可接受的回归方程,而采用主成分分析和逐步回归方法相结合,可避免共线性问题,由前体物浓度和气象要素给出较好的北京大气O3浓度统计预报方程,可决系数R2分别为0.78(IAPs2007)、0.88(IRSAs2007)和0.64(IAPs2005),能够有效地预报O3浓度的变化情况.
引用
收藏
页码:1286 / 1294
页数:9
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