能源消费、经济增长与结构变迁

被引：20

作者：

宋锋华 ^{[1
]}

泰来提木明 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 新疆财经大学经济学院

[2] 新疆财经大学国际经贸学院

来源：

宏观经济研究 | 2016年 / 03期

关键词：

能源消费; 经济增长; 面板协整; 能源强度; 面板门限回归;

D O I：

10.16304/j.cnki.11-3952/f.2016.03.007

中图分类号：

F206 [能源管理]; F124 [经济建设和发展]; F224 [经济数学方法];

学科分类号：

020201 ; 0201 ; 020105 ; 0701 ; 070104 ;

摘要：

本文利用新近发展的面板协整技术和面板误差修正模型来判断我国能源消费与经济增长之间的长期趋势和短期波动情况,然后使用门限回归模型分析能源消费对于经济增长的作用是否存在一种结构变动,进而促使经济发展在跨越某一阶段后减少对于能源消费的依赖。研究结果表明了能源消费与经济增长存在着长期的协整关系,但地区间差异较大;并且存在着以能源强度为门槛变量的非线性转化关系,当能源利用效率较低时,经济增长是以资本和能源消耗为基础的;而当能源利用效率提高时,经济增长则依靠于资本和劳动投入,且两者的影响程度趋同,而对于能源投入的依赖程度下降。

引用

页码：73 / 84+97 +97

页数：13

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