我国短期气候预测技术进展

被引:89
作者
贾小龙
陈丽娟
高辉
王永光
柯宗建
刘长征
宋文玲
吴统文
封国林
赵振国
李维京
机构
[1] 国家气候中心
关键词
气候预测; 气候模式; 解释应用; 东亚季风;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
P456.1 [短期预报方法];
学科分类号
摘要
经过近60年的发展,我国短期气候预测技术和方法也有了长足进步。近年来,一些新的预报技术和机理认识不断应用于短期气候预测业务。ARGO海洋观测资料的使用大大提高了业务模式的预测技巧,新一代气候预测模式系统已经投入准业务化运行,研发了多种模式降尺度释用技术,多模式气候预测产品解释应用集成系统(MODES)和动力-统计结合的季节预测系统(FODAS)逐渐应用于业务中,大气季节内振荡(MJO)逐步在延伸期预报中得到应用。近年来,对全球海洋、北极海冰、欧亚积雪、南半球环流系统对东亚季风影响的新认识也不断引入到短期气候预测业务中。这些新技术和新认识的应用极大提高了我国短期气候预测的业务能力。
引用
收藏
页码:641 / 655
页数:15
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