基于PSTR模型的中国能源消费与经济增长非线性关系研究

被引：18

作者：

贺小莉 ^{[1
,2
]}

潘浩然 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 北京交通大学经济管理学院

[2] 不详

来源：

中国人口·资源与环境 | 2013年 / 23卷 / 12期

关键词：

能源消费; 经济增长; PSTR模型;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

F426.2 []; F124 [经济建设和发展]; F224 [经济数学方法];

学科分类号：

0701 ; 070104 ;

摘要：

本文基于中国30个省市自治区1990-2011年的面板数据,采用面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型,研究了中国能源消费和经济增长间的非线性关系。不同于现有的研究,文中选取人均GDP、能源强度、资本形成总额作为阈值变量,并对其进行比较,发现资本形成总额为最优阈值变量,这一结论显示出现阶段我国能源消费与经济增长的非线性关系中资本投入量的重要作用;同时使用工具变量法对模型进行估计。实证分析结果表明:①三个非线性模型都显示我国能源消费与经济增长的正相关关系;②随着人均GDP的增加,能源消费量将会增加,人均GDP达到13 000元左右时,能源消费量对收入水平较敏感,能源消费弹性分别为0.473 1和0.394 6,表明随着经济的进一步发展,能源消费弹性会逐步降低;③能源强度与资本形成总额分别达到4.567 7和5 162.974 7亿元时模型趋向于高体制;④以资本形成总额作为阈值变量,估计模型并得到消除地区差异性的我国能源消费弹性时间序列,发现样本期内其数值逐步增大,表明随着经济的进一步发展,能源消费量对经济增长的变化将更加敏感。

引用

页码：84 / 89

页数：6

共 21 条

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