SWAT模型应用与不确定性综述

被引：28

作者：

杨凯杰 ^{[1
,2
]}

吕昌河 ^{[1
,3
]}

机构：

[1] 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室

[2] 中国科学院大学

[3] 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院

来源：

水土保持学报 | 2018年 / 01期

基金：

国家重点研发计划;

关键词：

SWAT模型; 应用领域; 不确定性; 数据精度; 尺度转换; 模型校准;

D O I：

10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2018.01.004

中图分类号：

P334.92 [];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型是对大尺度复杂流域进行长时期水文模拟的重要工具,在水文循环、土壤侵蚀、污染物负荷、气候变化与土地利用变化的影响等方面得到广泛应用。SWAT模型在国内外流域模拟中取得良好的模拟效果,但不确定性问题普遍存在。从模型使用者的视角,针对输入数据的准备、子流域划分和输入数据尺度转换、模型参数校准3个SWAT模型应用的重要步骤,讨论了其主要不确定性来源。模型输入数据精度不足以准确反映其空间差异,模拟单元划分粗略导致输入数据向模拟单元尺度转换时参数集总程度过高,模型参数校准过程中观测数据和评价指标的不合理选择以及异参同效现象。对此,总结提出了降低不确定性、提高模拟精度的主要措施:提高输入数据的分辨率和模拟单元划分精度至理想阈值,对模型的关键参数和部分计算方法进行本地化,采用多重评价指标、自动校准与人工校准相结合以及多要素、多站点的参数校准方法。把握模型应用主要步骤中可能的不确定性来源,并结合具体研究区特征和研究目标采取相应的措施降低不确定性,是提高SWAT模型模拟结果可信度的必要途径。

引用

页码：17 / 24+31 +31

页数：9

共 52 条

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