基于顾客满意度感知要素的需求预测模型

被引：12

作者：

李玉鹏 ^{[1
]}

曾丽娟 ^{[1
]}

曹进 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 中国矿业大学矿业工程学院工业工程系/深部煤炭资源开采教育部重点实验室

[2] 上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院

来源：

计算机集成制造系统 | 2017年 / 23卷 / 02期

关键词：

顾客感知要素; 改进的灰色关联分析; 单变量灰色模型; GM(1,N,x(0)); 加权Markov模型; 需求预测;

D O I：

10.13196/j.cims.2017.02.020

中图分类号：

F224 [经济数学方法]; F713.55 [商业心理学、市场心理学];

学科分类号：

0701 ; 070104 ; 040203 ;

摘要：

随着顾客主导型市场的发展,顾客满意度对未来市场需求的影响日益显著,为提高需求预测的准确性,构建了考虑顾客感知要素的多变量灰色组合需求预测模型。引入改进的灰色关联分析方法对与需求变化有关的质量、性能、服务等顾客感知要素的重要度进行分析。对由单变量灰色模型的派生形式GM(1,1,x（0）)得到的各自变量因子的初始预测值进行加权Markov模型修正,以确定多变量灰色模型的派生形式GM(1,N,x（0）)的输入量,预测未来需求趋势。以某企业发动机产品的需求预测为例,证明了该方法的适用性和有效性。

引用

页码：404 / 413

页数：10

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