基于预报难度的径流预报水平综合评定

被引：3

作者：

蒋志强 ^{[1
]}

陈育赟 ^{[1
]}

徐杨 ^{[2
]}

张海荣 ^{[2
]}

刘懿 ^{[1
]}

冯仲恺 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院

[2] 长江电力公司水资源研究中心

来源：

水力发电学报 | 2020年 / 39卷 / 02期

基金：

国家重点研发计划;

关键词：

径流预报; 误差; 预报难度; 预报水平; 综合评定;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P338 [水文预报];

学科分类号：

摘要：

本文在分析传统径流预报精度评定方法的基础上,给出了预报难度的概念和定义,并考虑有无降雨、不同预见期及不同预报流量级别等不同预报情景,提出了两种基于预报误差分布的预报难度计算方法,可实现不同预报情景及不同预报水平标准下的预报难度计算。将其与预报员预报水平评估相结合,建立了考虑预报难度的预报人员综合预报水平评定方法。实例研究结果发现,相比于传统方法,所提综合预报水平评定方法能有效考虑不同预报情景的预报难度,能够充分体现出大难度预报情形(例如长预见期预报)在预报精度提升时对于综合预报水平的贡献量,使所得结果更加科学、合理,可有效促进预报人员预报水平的自我提升。

引用

页码：81 / 93

页数：13

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