中国的能源回弹效应及其对实现“十三五”节能目标的影响

被引：9

作者：

庞军 ^{[1
]}

龚亚珍 ^{[1
]}

石媛昌 ^{[2
]}

李梓瑄 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 中国人民大学环境学院

[2] 中国农业大学理学院

来源：

中国环境科学 | 2018年 / 05期

基金：

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助;

关键词：

能源回弹效应; CGE模型; “十三五”规划; 节能; 中国;

D O I：

10.19674/j.cnki.issn1000-6923.20180226.001

中图分类号：

F206 [能源管理]; X24 [人类、资源、能源与环境的关系];

学科分类号：

020201 ; 1204 ;

摘要：

通过构建中国能源经济递推动态CGE模型,分别模拟了改善我国整体经济能效?单独提升不同品种能源利用效率以及仅提升高耗能行业能效的回弹效应,同时模拟了2012～2020年我国能源回弹效应的变化趋势及对我国实现"十三五"节能目标的影响.结果显示:我国存在能源回弹效应,整体经济的能源回弹效应在36%左右;全社会整体能效的提升更有利于我国节能,能效改善有利于我国减少煤炭使用但可能导致部分行业电力消耗的反弹;2012～2020年我国的能源回弹效应呈缓慢上升趋势,如果不配套相关措施我国"十三五"能效改善目标的实现将面临挑战.

引用

页码：1979 / 1989

页数：11

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