Sensitivity analysis of optimal renewable energy mathematical model on demand variations

Energy demand is increasing rapidly because of developments in the industrial, agricultural, commercial and transportation sectors. The population rise and improved life style are other reasons for the increase in energy demand. Since commercial energy sources are non-renewable and depleting in nature, it is essential to seek renewable energy sources. After a few decades, renewables have to play a major role to meet the growing energy demand. A Delphi study has been conducted to find the level of social acceptance in the utilisation of renewable energy sources for the year 2020-2021. The experts' opinion revealed that 25% of total energy demand could be met by renewable energy sources. An Optimal Renewable Energy Mathematical (OREM) model is developed to allocate the predicted renewable energy demand for different end uses. The model is analysed to meet 20, 25 and 30% of the total energy demand in the year 2020-2021. In the case of the 25% energy demand, the renewable energy contribution would be 8.127 x 10(15) kJ. A sensitivity analysis has been done to validate the OREM model. The analysis reveals that the energy distribution pattern changes, even with an increase of 1% energy demand, for which the coefficient of sensitivity is 1.84%, This study will help in the formation of strategies for effective utilisation of renewable energy sources in India. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.