Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

[1] The relationship between the boreal spring (March-May) Hadley circulation (HC) and the following summer (June-September) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency expressed as the total number of TCs in the western North Pacific is investigated through using the observed data. Results show that the spring HC is negatively correlated to the summer TC frequency. Such a relationship can be explained by the changes of the atmospheric circulations related to anomalous spring HC. A strong spring HC is followed by the weaker East Asian monsoon, stronger vertical zonal wind shear, and reduced convection over the western North Pacific in summer, which are unfavorable for TC genesis, and vice versa. The potential mechanism of how the spring HC affects the summer atmospheric circulations is also preliminarily identified. It is found that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea may play important roles, since an anomalous spring HC can excite simultaneous SST anomalies, which can persist to the following summer and in turn give rise to the atmospheric anomalies associated with TC activities. Thus the variation of the spring HC can be a potential indicator in predicting summer TC activities over the western North Pacific.