Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature

被引：584

作者：

Cook, John ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Nuccitelli, Dana ^{[2
,4
]}

Green, Sarah A. ^{[5
]}

Richardson, Mark ^{[6
]}

Winkler, Baerbel ^{[2
]}

Painting, Rob ^{[2
]}

Way, Robert ^{[7
]}

Jacobs, Peter ^{[8
]}

Skuce, Andrew ^{[2
,9
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

[2] Skept Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[3] Univ Western Australia, Sch Psychol, Nedlands, WA 6009, Australia

[4] Tetra Tech Inc, Mcclellan, CA USA

[5] Michigan Technol Univ, Dept Chem, Houghton, MI 49931 USA

[6] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 2AH, Berks, England

[7] Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Geog, St John, NF A1C 5S7, Canada

[8] George Mason Univ, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[9] Salt Spring Consulting Ltd, Salt Spring Isl, BC, Canada

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2013年 / 8卷 / 02期

关键词：

scientific consensus; anthropogenic global warming; peer-review; global climate change; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change;

D O I：

10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

引用

页数：7

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