Spatiotemporal Analysis of Epizootic Raccoon Rabies Propagation in Connecticut, 1991-1995

被引：35

作者：

Lucey, B. T. ^{[1
]}

Russell, C. A. ^{[1
]}

Smith, D. ^{[3
]}

Wilson, M. L. ^{[4
]}

Long, A. ^{[5
]}

Waller, L. A. ^{[2
]}

Childs, J. E. ^{[6
]}

Real, L. A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Emory Univ, Dept Biol, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA

[2] Emory Univ, Dept Biostat, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA

[3] Univ Maryland, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Baltimore, MD USA

[4] Univ Michigan, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[5] Northern Kentucky Univ, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Highland Hts, KY 41076 USA

[6] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Ctr Infect Dis, Atlanta, GA USA

来源：

VECTOR-BORNE AND ZOONOTIC DISEASES | 2002年 / 2卷 / 02期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

Trend Surface Analysis; Local habitat variation; Rabies; Raccoon; Disease spread;

D O I：

10.1089/153036602321131878

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

The quantitative analysis of pathogen transmission within its specific spatial context should improve our ability to predict and control the epizootic spread of that disease. We compared two methods for calibrating the effect of local, spatially distributed environmental heterogeneities on disease spread. Using the time-of-first-appearance of raccoon rabies across the 169 townships in Connecticut, we estimated local spatial variation in township-to-township transmission rate using Trend Surface Analysis (TSA) and then compared these estimates with those based on an earlier probabilistic simulation using the same data. Both the probabilistic simulation and the TSA reveal significant reduction in transmission when local spatial domains are separated by rivers. The probabilistic simulation suggested that township-to-township transmission was reduced sevenfold for townships separated by a river. The global effect of this sevenfold reduction is to increase the time-to-first-appearance in the eastern townships of Connecticut by similar to 29.7% (spread was from west to east). TSA revealed a similar effect of rivers with an overall reduction in rate of local propagation due to rivers of similar to 22%. The 7.7% difference in these two estimates reveals slightly different aspects of the spatial dynamics of this epizootic. Together, these two methods can be used to construct an overall picture of the combined effects of local spatial variation in township-to-township transmission on patterns of local rate of propagation at scales larger than the immediate nearest neighboring townships.

引用

页码：77 / +

页数：12

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