Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)

被引：190

作者：

Bindschadler, Robert A. ^{[1
]}

Nowicki, Sophie ^{[1
]}

Abe-Ouchi, Ayako ^{[2
]}

Aschwanden, Andy ^{[3
]}

Choi, Hyeungu ^{[4
]}

Fastook, Jim ^{[5
]}

Granzow, Glen ^{[6
]}

Greve, Ralf ^{[7
]}

Gutowski, Gail ^{[8
]}

Herzfeld, Ute ^{[9
,10
]}

Jackson, Charles ^{[8
]}

Johnson, Jesse ^{[6
]}

Khroulev, Constantine ^{[3
]}

Levermann, Anders ^{[11
]}

Lipscomb, William H. ^{[12
]}

Martin, Maria A. ^{[13
]}

Morlighem, Mathieu ^{[14
]}

Parizek, Byron R. ^{[15
]}

Pollard, David ^{[16
]}

Price, Stephen F. ^{[12
]}

Ren, Diandong ^{[17
]}

Saito, Fuyuki ^{[18
]}

Sato, Tatsuru ^{[7
]}

Seddik, Hakime ^{[7
]}

Seroussi, Helene ^{[19
]}

Takahashi, Kunio ^{[18
]}

Walker, Ryan ^{[20
]}

Wang, Wei Li ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA

[2] Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan

[3] Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Geophys, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA

[4] Sigma Space Corp, Lanham, MD USA

[5] Univ Maine, Comp Sci Quaternary Inst, Orono, ME USA

[6] Univ Montana, Coll Arts & Sci, Missoula, MT 59812 USA

[7] Hokkaido Univ, Inst Low Temp Sci, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060, Japan

[8] Univ Texas Austin, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX USA

[9] Univ Colorado, Dept Elect Comp & Energy Engn, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[10] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[11] Univ Potsdam, Inst Phys, Potsdam, Germany

[12] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Los Alamos, NM USA

[13] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[14] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA

[15] Penn State DuBois, Math & Geosci, Du Bois, PA USA

[16] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[17] Curtin Univ Technol, Dept Phys, Perth, WA, Australia

[18] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Res Inst Global Change, Kanazawa Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

[19] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA

[20] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF GLACIOLOGY | 2013年 / 59卷 / 214期

基金：

日本学术振兴会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL; FINITE-ELEMENT METHODS; SATELLITE RADAR; SURFACE MELT; LASER DATA; PISM-PIK; GREENLAND; SHELF; ANTARCTICA; GLACIER;

D O I：

10.3189/2013JoG12J125

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.

引用

页码：195 / 224

页数：30

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