The demand side of the job market for diagnostic radiologists and radiation oncologists: Hiring by physician groups in 1995

OBJECTIVE. The American College of Radiology sought to assess the hiring activities of radiology groups in 1995, the 1995 employment market for diagnostic radiologists and radiation oncologists, and changes in the employment market since 1991. MATERIALS AND METHODS. We mailed surveys about recruitment and hiring to a stratified random sample of 600 radiology groups in the United States; 85% responded. The responses were weighted to show what they would have been if all of the approximately 3150 radiology groups in the United States had answered the survey. The findings were compared with similar surveys conducted in 1994 and 1991. RESULTS. In 1995, 31% (+/- 1% [SE]) of radiology groups actively recruited diagnostic radiologists or radiation oncologists, seeking to fill 1423 (+/- 119) openings. These figures represent a progressive decline from the 50% of groups recruiting and 2255 positions offered in 1991. In 1995, radiology groups filled 85% of available positions, compared with 76% in 1994 and 71% in 1991. In 1995, positions available because of expansion of radiology groups numbered 613 (+/- 73), considerably fewer than the estimated 720-position increase that takes place each year in the number of posttraining diagnostic radiologists and radiation oncologists in practice. In 1995, general diagnostic radiology accounted for approximately 48% of the full-time-equivalent radiologists sought; radiation oncology, 11%; and the diagnostic subspecialties, 41%. We found few statistically significant differences among specialty and subspecialty fields in the percentage of available positions filled, Private, nonacademic groups offered 77% of their positions on a partnership track basis. Groups strongly affected by managed care recruited fewer radiologists and offered fewer expansion positions than similar groups that were less affected by managed care. However, managed care did not influence whether positions were offered on a partnership basis. CONCLUSION. Available positions continued to decline, and the shortfall of expansion positions relative to the annual growth in the workforce may generate serious employment problems, Managed care is having a negative effect on employment opportunities for radiologists. Gaining employment remains about equally difficult, regardless of field, The approximately 200 positions that remained unfilled at the end of the 1995 hiring season did not result from a mismatch between radiologists' skills and the qualifications that radiology groups were seeking.