Quantifying recent acceleration in sea level unrelated to internal climate variability

被引:81
作者
Calafat, F. M. [1 ,2 ]
Chambers, D. P. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ S Florida, Coll Marine Sci, St Petersburg, FL 33701 USA
[2] Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton, Hants, England
关键词
sea level; acceleration; tide gauge; internal climate variability; external forcing; COAST; RISE;
D O I
10.1002/grl.50731
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
070403 [天体物理学];
摘要
Sea level observations suggest that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated during the last 20years. However, the presence of considerable decadal-scale variability, especially on a regional scale, makes it difficult to assess whether the observed changes are due to natural or anthropogenic causes. Here we use a regression model with atmospheric pressure, wind, and climate indices as independent variables to quantify the contribution of internal climate variability to the sea level at nine tide gauges from around the world for the period 1920-2011. Removing this contribution reveals a statistically significant acceleration (0.022 +/- 0.015mm/yr(2)) between 1952 and 2011, which is unique over the whole period. Furthermore, we have found that the acceleration is increasing over time. This acceleration appears to be the result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, along with changes in volcanic forcing and tropospheric aerosol loading.
引用
收藏
页码:3661 / 3666
页数:6
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