Time-to-turbidity model for non-proteolytic type B Clostridium botulinum

A model to predict the time for growth to turbidity from spores of non-proteolytic type B strains of Clostridium botulinum was developed in broth media with varying temperatures (4-28 degrees C), pH values (5-7), NaCl additions (0-4%) and total spores (10(1)-10(5)). The model estimates the probability that a sample will have growth on a given day for up to 90 days of storage. The parameters of the model include the probability of growth after 90 days (P-max) and the mean time of growth (tau) for those tubes that showed growth. The 95% confidence interval (CI95%) for tau was also determined. The tau decreased with increasing temperature and pH, but NaCl levels below 3% had little effect. Decreasing the number of spores in a sample increased both tau and the confidence intervals about tau, reflecting the increasing uncertainty about the estimation of growth times for low spore numbers. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.